Communist Review - Strategic planning plays an increasingly important role in management at national, regional and global scale in the context of shifting inputs, outputs and procedures. It is always regarded as an indispensable requirement with respect to diplomacy owing to its link to such national core interests as security arrangement, growth promotion and national status enhancement. Similar to strategic planning, there must be modifications to the planning of diplomatic strategy in the context of a world of multiple uncertainties, the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0) with extensive impacts and the growing competition among powers.

Strategy, diplomatic strategy and strategic planning

A universally employed definition of strategy describes it as a set of measures in allocating and managing resources which aim for key, long-term goals, and have significant impacts on organizations, communities, nations and regions. Despites differences in interpretations and approaches, concepts of strategy share the following three factors: 1- Ends (typically medium-long term ones); 2- Means (resources); 3- Ways (action). As far as the degree is concerned, strategy is quite a contrast to tactic in terms of objectives, methods and resources. A tactical mistake might be amended. A strategic one, on the contrary, will induce negative consequencesand make correctness a huge challenge. Unlike tactic, strategy places much emphasis on long-term goals and future evolution rather than just responds to immediate events⁽¹⁾.

Every nation has its own strategy (albeit made public or not) which could, with sufficient planning, map out the way to tap into opportunities and overcome challenges. Strategy, in a broad sense, presents the overall strategy of a country as a whole. In a narrower extent, it is the strategy for particular sections like national defence, economy or diplomacy. Simply put, strategic planning is the formulation of strategy.  While strategy answers the What and Why questions, planning responds to the How one.

Based on the broad concept of strategy, it could be understood that diplomatic strategy results from the process in which a nation identifies vital diplomatic objectives, directions and methods to achieve these goals in the medium and long run⁽²⁾. In the modern era of international politics, strategic planning is typically based on the consideration of various factors and aspects, having considerable influence on not only intended objects but also “satellite” ones with the aim of gaining key objectives (like someone plays the whole chess game instead of making single moves).

Due to rapidly shifting international conditions, newly-emerged factors and growing policy uncertainty, a cohesive and coherent strategy document is more necessary than ever before⁽³⁾. Accordingly, it is argued that policy execution in the absence of an institutionalized planning process seems certain to lead to a loss of efficiency, or worse, a catastrophic failure⁽⁴⁾. That occurs when a subject is lured into events without “immutable” principles of response. Dr. Meena Bose, Executive Dean for Public Policy and Public Service Programs, Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, and Director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency, at Hofstra University believes that professionally devised procedures of strategic planning could facilitate thoughtful detailed consideration of alternatives, and aid leaders in focusing on top priorities⁽⁵⁾.

Again, owing to anunanticipatedworld with numerous uncertainties, some claim that strategic planning should be performed on an ad hoc basis⁽⁶⁾. Instead of rigid grand planning of strategy, it is advisable to take a more flexible approach. Planning is none of a prior process separated from implementation. Rather, they are parallel to each other⁽⁷⁾. Hence, planning is more likely to be tailored to the reality. If the reality falls short of expectations or assumptions, then pre-planned objectives might be changed⁽⁸⁾. Even worse, in rare scenarios, preliminary objectives and designs must be replaced completely, and foreign policy owes its success to the hands-on experience of policymakers and their adaptation to international unpredictability⁽⁹⁾. Whatever the response, improvisation or immutability, itrequires radical calculations from a strategic perspective.

Strategic planning, in essence, is a thinking process that programs and analyzes large, highly reliable data sets. That thinking process is an overarching, logical, reasonable, multi-layered, creative way of raising questions to achieve significant accomplishments with long-lasting influence⁽¹⁰⁾. The purpose of strategic planning is to implement the strategies developed through the strategic thinking process.

The relationswithin the strategic goals of development, security and position

The goals of peace, stability, independence, sovereignty, development and empowerment are strategic onesfor which every country strives. Notably, there is a growing awareness of the close relationship and interaction in the process of pursuing these goals. For instance, stability lays the essential foundation for development, and development in return formulates adequate conditions for stability. A lesson learned from nations suffering “instability” is that if development goals, especially sustainable and inclusive ones are not to be achieved, stability is thus beyond reach.

Security is the prerequisite, but if there is relative stability, development becomes a priority (this explains for the emergence of the trend toward development priority since the end of the Cold War). Recognizing the interplay between key sectors, the United Nations has announced and implemented the Global Agenda for Development to 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a roadmap to end poverty, to fight against inequality and to address a number of non-traditional security challenges (environmental security, food security, climate change, etc.) in the next 15 years. Sustainable development is the one that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (i.e. a long-term, strategic approach).

Studies have unveiled that once peace, security and stability in a country are not secured, it will then “pay the price” of development. Indicators like growth rate, import, export volume, income, individual and government expenditure will be affected as large resource is spent on responding to instability. By contrast, the root causes of conflict, uncertainty in multiple countries are the inadequate attention paid to development goals, uneven growth, expanding inequality (supposedly result in extremism, terrorism, etc.)

The relationship between “status goal” and those of development and security has been proven in reality. Some countries including Singapore, Vatican, Switzerland have overwhelmed their powers given their indicators of “rigid power” (vital to security goal), and “soft power” (a factor affecting development goal). In the poem titled “Learn to play chess”, President Ho Chi Minh wrote “In a wrong move, two chariots are rendered useless. Ata right moment, a pawn can win victory”. In the Chinese mindset, the element “posture” (勢), which embraces the letter “power” (力), is highly appreciated. In the current period, “national image” or “national brand” stands as a strategic asset.

Combining those goals in Viet Nam’sspecific conditions from present to 2030, with a vision to 2045

In the process of profound international integration, Viet Nam must ensure that the interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral approach is taken in its foreign strategic planning. Diplomacy not only contributes to ensuring peace and stability, but also contributes to economic development, improving people's living standards, and enhancing the role and position of the country.In the words of former Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan, diplomacy primarily aims to “serve three basic objectives, namely security (contributing to ensuring independence, sovereignty, national security and territorial integrity); development goals (taking advantage of external forces and creating favorable international conditions for the country's socio-economic development); and influence objectives (contributing to raising the national status, promoting influence in the international arena)”⁽¹¹⁾.

Regarding the role of Viet Nam's diplomacy, in his message to the diplomatic sector on the occasion of its75^th founding anniversary (August 28, 2020), Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc emphasized thatViet Nam's revolutionary diplomacy was proud to be directly built, guided and trained by President Ho Chi Minh. Over the past 75 years, the diplomatic sector has always proven to be the pioneering force in defending revolutionary achievements, forming a worldwidepeople’s frontin support of Viet Nam, creating synergy to bring success for the resistance wars for national liberation, national reunification, and defense of the Fatherland previously; as well as in combining national strength with the strength of the times, creating favorable conditions for today's renovation, development and international integration⁽¹²⁾. Viet Nam owes its synergy to strategic planning on the basis of interdisciplinary coordination, concerted efforts, and pursuance of universal ends.

Thanks to the promotion of synergy and combination of forces, Viet Nam has made majorbreakthroughs in its position and strength. Once being a poor and backward country, Viet Nam has earned the low-middle-income status, and is forecast to be listed as 20 largest economies in the world by the mid-21st century. Once experiencingharsh embargo, Viet Nam now has diplomatic relations with 189 out of 193 countries, commercial relations with more than 230 countries and territories, engaging in strategic and global partnership framework with 30 countries. If partners ofnew-generation free trade agreements (FTA) are included, itstotal number of partners would reach 59, accounting for 59% of the population, 61% of GDP, and 68% of trade on earth. As an aid recipient for many years, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, Viet Nam has provided supplies to 51 countries and international organizations.

Apart from historical opportunities and successes, from a strategic planning perspective, Viet Nam will face monumental challenges in decades to come, requiring long-term and breakthrough solutions as follows:

Regarding development, though economic growth is at speed and partly gets quality, it is calculated that Viet Nam needs to maintain a growth rate of 7% - 7.5% in the transitional period 2021 - 2030, which is much higher than 6.3% in the past 10 years. In order tojoin the “First World”, South Korea’s economy used to grow by nearly 10% for 37 consecutive years.

A determinant of growth is labor productivity. Despite having the fastest growth rate in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in recent years, Viet Nam's current labor productivity just stands at 7.2%, 36.2% and 43% compared to those of Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia respectively. According to the 2018 World Economic Forum, Viet Nam only achieved 43 out of 100 points in the level of information and communication technology application. With that humble progress, it was ranked 95 out of 140 countries. Viet Nam's readiness level for the Fourth Industrial Revolution is preliminary, ranking 92 out of 100 countries in terms of foundational technology and 77 out of 100 countries in terms of innovative capacity.

Among developing countries, Viet Namis on the top list of the Global Innovation Index (GII), ascending 16 places since 2016 but only ranked 42 out of 129 countries. As creative knowledge playsan increasingly decisive role, Viet Nam's investment rate for a researcher is only a third of Thailand, a quarter of Malaysia and a seventh of Singapore. From an external economic perspective, Viet Nam will embark upon the new decade with another specific task. That is to take advantage of the high-standard international agreements that Viet Nam has committed to. In other words, while the past 10 years acts as a period of framework establishment, the next 10 years will be a period of real “battles”. Recent simulations has revealed that if science - technology and innovation are transformed into economic driver, Viet Nam can achieve an average GDP growth rate of 7.5% per year.

Regarding security, Viet Nam will continue to have to deal with a series of traditional and non-traditional challenges. The South China Searemains a tough issue in terms of sovereignty, sovereign rights, jurisdiction, legitimate rights and interests, security, peace, stability, freedom, safety and security, maritime and aviation security, protection of marine resources and environment, strategic competition among major powers, etc.

It is required to map outa comprehensive and long-term solution to Mekong water since Viet Nam is the most downstream country whose Cuu Long Delta is vital to its water security, economic development, preservationof values, cultural traditions, customs, and interaction with its neighbors in the sub-region. Diseases and health crises are on the rise.

In the past 20 years, the world has experienced infectious diseases, including the COVID-19 epidemic for five times at least. Viet Nam is one of the countries worst affected by climate change. As an open, globally connected economy, Viet Nam is among countries most vulnerable to cyberspace, while the potential digital economy can contribute to the growth of the economy by a few percentage points. Responding to diverse security challenges puts increasing pressure on the countrywhich considers economic development as the central responsibility.

In terms of prestige and position, although Viet Nam is highly appreciated by the international and regional community, there remains much to be done. If Viet Nam is to go beyond the framework of “positive and proactive” to “create”, promote more actively international role on issues that it has interests, capabilities and common concerns with its partners, there requires a systematic approach in terms of resources,team building, profile creation and foreign support attraction.

Obviously, in order to achieve big goals, it is necessary to renew traditional mindset, to think out of the box to explore new lands in the process of planning. In terms of behavior, the challenge is to promote the trend of multilateralism and international law in the context of increasing nationalism, power and populism, selfishness-based behaviors in international relations.

Maximize the planningprocess of diplomatic strategy

With the aforementioned approach to foreign strategic planning, the question arises as to how to simultaneously meet the goals of development, security and position. In order to pursue a more effective foreign strategic planning process in the time to come, Viet Nam needs to:

Firstly, promoting its efforts to institutionalize, synchronize and systematize national decisions so that the fields of development, security and position not only complement but also leverage each other, creating combined power.

Secondly, on the basis of national interests, localities need to take a coherent and inter-sectional approach in the process of advising, planning and implementing foreign strategy. They should also make it clear thatindividual interests are inferior to common ones, “sectoral integration” is a part of the “total integration”, in which external relations (including external relations of sectors and fields) play a pioneering role⁽¹⁴⁾.

Thirdly, identifying the right goals and measures, including breakthrough measures beyond the hard capacity level and allocating appropriate resources (lack of resources, policies will be voluntarism-oriented and less feasible) for the key tasks of promoting development, ensuring security and enhancing the role and position of the country in the international arena.

The capacity building of human resources is crucial, especially at the leadership and decision-making levels. The training and building of a contingent of “on-par-with-the-task” cadres at the strategic level should be prioritized and promoted more strongly in the coming periods.

Viet Nam has gainedmassive achievements of historical significance over 35 years of renovation in the domains of development, security and position on the international arena. Those achievements results fromthe application of strategic thinking into the practice of policy making. In order to continue to improve efficiency towards greater goals, the strategic planning process, including the diplomatic sector, needs to continue to be optimized. This is also associated with the need to build a comprehensive, modern diplomacy⁽¹⁵⁾, playing a pioneering role, in line with the requirements of reality, and closely coordinating with the forces, ministries, sectors and localities in the key period from now to 2030, with a vision to 2045./.

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(1) Andrew W. Marshall: “Strategy as a profession for future generations”, On Not Confusing Ourselves: Essays on National Security Strategy in Honor of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, 1991, pp. 302 – 311

(2) Le Dinh Tinh, Dang Cam Tu, Nguyen Vu Tung: “Thesis on foreign strategy”, Journal of International Studies, Vol. 3 (118), September 2019, p. 204

3) James Goldgeier và Jeremi Suri: “Revitalizing the U.S. National Security Strategy”, The Washington Quarterly38, No. 4 (2015), pp. 35 - 55, 

(4) Aaron L. Friedberg: “Strengthening US strategic planning”, Washington Quarterly 31, No.1 (2008), pp. 47 – 60

(5) Meenekshi Bose: Shaping and Signaling Presidential Policy: The National Security Decision Making of Eisenhower and Kennedy, Texas A&M University Press, 1998

(6) Ronald Krebs and David Edelstein: “Delusions of Grand Strategy: The Problem with Washington’s Planning Obsession”, Foreign affairs (Council on Foreign Relations) No. 94 (November 2015), pp109 – 116

(7) Thanks to the advancement of science - technology, now in many fields, decisions can be made almost in real time. For example, the input information will be updated, processed with complex algorithms by artificial intelligence (AI), and real-time solution will be recommended (the US Coast Guard has applied this technology to search for missing people at sea)

(8) Lawrence Freedman: Strategy: A History, Oxford University Press, 2015

(9) Ionut Popescu: “Grand Strategy vs. Emergent Strategy in the conduct of foreign policy”, Journal of Strategic Studies 41 (12-2017)

(10) See also: Le Dinh Tinh: “Discussion on strategic thinking: Theory, practice and cases of Viet Nam”, Journal of International Studies, No. 4 (111), December 2017, pp. 17 - 35

(11) Vu Khoan: “Security, development and influence in foreign activities”, Journal of International Studies, December 1993

(12) See: https://baoquocte.vn/thong-diep-cua-thu-tuong-nguyen-xuan-phuc-gui-nganh-ngoa-Giao-nhan-dip-ky-niem-75-nam-ngay -bar-lap-122383.html

(14) See also: Nguyen Nang Nam: “Solving the relationship between national defense, security and foreign affairs - the art of revolutionary leadership”, Ibid; Manh Hung: “Promoting the pioneering role of foreign affairs in maintaining a peaceful and stable environment”, https://dangcongsan.vn/thoi-su/phat-huy-vai-tro-tien-phong- cue-outside-in-viu-giu-vung-moi-truong-hoabinh-on-dinh-561378.html, accessed on December 21, 2020

15) See: Nguyen Hong Diep: “Continuing to build and perfect a comprehensive and modern diplomacy”, https://www.Viet Namplus.vn/tiep-tuc-xay-dung-hoan-thien-nen- Ngoai-giao-toan-dien-hien-dai/656910.vnp, accessed on December 20, 2020

This article was published in the Communist Review No.  964 (April 2021)