Communist Review - 2020 is considered as one of the special years of world history. Many experts have forecast structural geo-political changes and an increase in major power competition in 2020. However, in the first half of 2020, the world has experienced upheavals, especially challenges posed by the unpredictable COVID-19 pandemic. These fluctuations have a strong impact on the security and foreign affairs of Vietnam today.

Terrible shock named COVID-19

It can be said that the COVID-19 pandemic is the factor that makes the fundamental difference in the world situation in 2020. For the first time, the world witnessed a non-traditional security challenge that caused the death of over a million people in just a few months. At the same time, for the first time, an epidemic revealed a series of problems that required the world to transform to adapt. The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly changed people's perceptions at three levels: individual, national and global. Each person, each country has to adjust its behavior as well as change its previous normal    activities. The world is forced to reexamine major trends such as globalization, linkage and integration and find new ways to maintain cooperation and dialogue. This epidemic also accelerates different trends in the world, especially the people’s demand on social security and problems of development disparities. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0) is more strongly promoted in most fields due to the awareness of the vital significance of science and technology in many countries. The COVID-19 pandemic also pushed the world economy into crisis and required adjustments of development models for adaptation. The founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Klaus Schwab said that capitalism is needed to be reinstalled and he emphasized the common goals of social equality and sustainable development, the importance of application of scientific advances for the common welfare of the people. Meanwhile, China's 14th Five-Year Plan was drafted in the spirit of enhancing self-control in the country's development. With far-reaching impacts on security, economy and society, the COVID-19 pandemic has directly affected international relations and policies of all countries, exceptionally, policies and relations of the great powers.

Policies and relations of major countries

The year 2020 is significant for the political future of the ruling party in all major countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences have upset many of the plans of major powers. American politics in the sprint period before the presidential election in November 2020, which is always tense due to fierce internal struggles, becomes more complicated because opposition forces use epidemics and discrimination issues to win votes in the hope of turning the tide. Meanwhile, in the final year of implementing the first 100-year goal, China is facing unprecedented challenges in terms of economic development and domestic security. On the 75th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War, Russia has appointed a new prime minister and revised the Constitution to consolidate power. However, a series of its domestic and foreign agendas have also been hindered by the pandemic. In terms of internal affairs, the leaders of all major countries must focus their maximum resources on handling the epidemic, restoring the economy and strengthening the credibility of the incumbent government. In terms of foreign affairs, the heavy losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have forced the great powers to adopt an assertive policy to limit the decline of comprehensive national power and national position.

US-China tensions in 2020 have reached their highest level since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Although the first round of the US-China trade agreement was finished in early 2020, the fundamental conflicts between the incumbent power and the rising power became more acute when the two countries became the epicenter of COVID-19. From a framework of both cooperation and struggle, the US-China relationship has now turned to a state of separation to a certain extent in terms of economy, science and technology, security and strategy. The US seem to be more proactive in implementing policies and measures to prevent China from becoming the leading country in the world. In parallel with the trade bargain, the administration of US President Donald Trump proposed the establishment of the Economic Prosperity Network, approved the Law on controlling the liability of foreign companies, and implemented Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act. The battle in the field of science and technology has become fiercer when President Donald Trump established the Committee for the Asseeement of Foreign Participation in the United States Telecommunications Service Sectors to  protect the technology - information industry, service supply chain in the US and maintain its world leadership role in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Not only investigating Chinese technology corporations for secret theft, economic espionage, and cyberattacks, the US has also strengthened cybersecurity measures through the “5G Clean Path” Initiative and pressured major technology firms to stop cooperating with China. The trend of shifting production and investment out of the Chinese market is also promoted by the US and its allies.

In terms of politics and security, the US continues to consolidate its military superiority and affirm its presence in the Indo-Pacific region. On the one hand, the US harshly criticized China toward Hong Kong (China) and tightened relationship with Taiwan (China). Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S 7th Fleet conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). It sometimes conducted a pair of U.S. Navy freedom of navigation operations on two consecutive days on April 28 and 29, 2020. On the other hand, the US took the lead in requesting an investigation into COVID-19 origins in order to clarify China's responsibility. Notably, in the report on “U.S. Strategy Approach to the People's Republic of China” (May 20, 2020), the administration of President Donald Trump publicly articulated that the US no longer believes in using engagement to make China a responsible and rules-based country. The report also acknowledges that long-term strategic competition exists between the two powers, so the US needs to take synchronous measures to mitigate the great challenges posed by China.

To deal with the US, China used a combination strategy which consists of forcing the US de-escalate trade and technology conflicts on one hand and showing a resolute attitude in matters of “core interests” on the other hand. After reaching the first trade agreement, China sought to maintain dialogue with the US, including high-level dialogues over telephone. The meeting between Politburo Member Yang Jiechi of the Chinese Communist Party and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Hawaii (USA) on June 17, 2002 is considered constructive by China as the two sides agreed to continue dialogue and cooperation. While the US demands a full, reciprocal agreement across trade, security and political issues, China emphasizes taking the agreement between the two side' heads of state as the basis for negotiation. Although China has a different approach to the US, it still maintains dialogue, especially separates trade issues from other areas to avoid confrontation with the US.

In efforts to dialogue on trade, China does not hesitate to confront in political and security issues. In the first half of 2020, it has adopted a more assertive policy than in previous years, was ready to flex its muscles in disputed areas. In order to protect “its core interests”, China passed a new national Security Law to tighten control over Hong Kong (China), conducted flight drills through the middle line of the Taiwan Strait (China)... According to analysts, these actions aime to send to the US the message that its national interests take primacy over international law despite the US criticism and presence in the region. It can be said that the nature of partnership between the US and China is becoming increasingly blurred and the rivalry is becoming more and more obvious and spreading to many fields. The only thing that makes observers not yet confirm the possibility of a recurrence of the Cold War is that the US has not set the goal of excluding China as the Soviet Union before.

US - Russia relations continue to have conflicts in the Middle East and Latin America. While Russia “shakes hands” with Turkey to stabilize the situation in Syria and Libya in order to promote interests in the Middle East, the US does not want to lose its influence in this region. Although President Donald Trump announced the gradual withdrawal of US military forces from the region, as of January 2020, the US announced Trump’s Middle East peace plan and attacked General Qasem Soleimani to deter Iran. In mid-June 2020, the US imposed new sanctions on the family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In essence, this is the US way to tighten ties with allies and put pressure on pro-Russian forces in the Middle East. In Latin America, the Venezuelan political crisis is the centre of the US-Russia rivalry, especially when it becomes a priority in President Donald Trump's election campaign. Most directly, on Russia's National Day of June 12, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared “Crimea is Ukraine”, demanding that Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine and release Ukrainian prisoners.

It is obvious that the heavy consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and a series of internal political problems have deepened the inherent contradictions between the US, Russia and China. The comprehensive increase in great power competition makes the world divide more sharply between the West led by the US on the one hand and China and Russia on the other.

Consequences of great power competition

The rapid gathering of forces to compete for influence has led to many consequences that small and medium-sized countries have to face.

Firstly, small and medium-sized countries face increasing pressure to “choose their allies” due to the manipulation or pressure of the great powers. For example, four Quad members (US, Australia, Japan and India) promote bilateral and multilateral cooperation, strengthen strategic coordination and expand this mechanism into a “Quad-plus”. Among the Quad members, India, once the least important member in the past few years, has now adjusted its policy in a more proactive direction, especially since the India-China border has become tense again. After hosting President Donald Trump at the end of February 2020, India conducted an online summit in June 2020 to upgrade it’s ties with Australia to the level of “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”. India has signed with the US and Australia and is about to sign a Logistics Agreement with Japan - an agreement of great significance in terms of defense and security. The “Quad-plus” online meeting is the first effort to coordinate among countries in responding to common challenges.

Compared with mid-range countries, small countries in Southeast Asia seek to behave more flexibly in the context of China-US competition. As the US has to focus on fighting the COVID-19 epidemic, some countries that do not have a dispute with China seek to take advantage of the Lancang - Mekong Cooperation and  Medical humanities community (part of Community with shared future for mankind). Even though the Philippines have announced the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US in early 2020 to take advantage of cooperation opportunities with China, by June 2020, the country decided to keep the VFA in effect.

Secondly, tensions in the world's “hot spots” are escalating, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. On the Korean peninsula, diplomatic efforts in the summits were no longer effective, while weapons testing, drills,… were still taking place. From the small-scale shooting to the destruction of the liaison office at the Kaesong industrial Region (Democratic People's Republic of Korea), mutual criticism and deterrence show the deadlock in inter-Korean relations is closely related to tensions between the US and China. While the US - China relationship is confronting its most daunting challenge, both the major powers face internal challenges, the opportunity for dialogue between inter-Korea is also quickly lost, partly due to the need to consolidate power of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. In the first 6 months of 2020, territorial disputes in the region also heated up markedly, notably the situation in the East Sea, East China Sea and the India-China border. A common feature of these disputes is China's assertive behavior to intimidate smaller countries and test the limits of the response of the claimants as well as the scale of US involvement. All the “hot spots” in the region are increasing heat, which are warning signs of danger to regional security, and reflect China's policy and firmly attitude to confirm with the US its  power in the region.

Furthermore, great power competition affects almost every other aspects of the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, damage caused by other non-traditional security issues have negative impacts on the stability of each country and the quality of life of its population.  Powerful countries continue to compete for leadership in tackling non-traditional security threats, notably epidemics, Mekong water resources and climate change. Ethnic conflicts, secession that have not yet been completely resolved, the release of terrorist criminals due to the epidemic, the reality in refugee camps, etc. manifest other potential dangers of the world security. In the face of emerging global problems, multilateral institutions, despite their efforts to adapt to the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, have not demonstrated their role mainly due to the separation of big countries. The United Nations has adjusted its decision-making procedure with a 72-hour silent procedure, conducted online meetings and accelerated efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, UN call for global ceasefire was not approved due to US objections. The World Health Organization (WHO) is the institution under the greatest pressure of great power competition during the epidemic. Not only facing criticisms due to lack of transparency and ineffective response to pandemic, WHO also confronts a funding reduction and a change in leadership. While the United States continue to withdraw from multilateral mechanisms, China is seizing  opportunity to take a leadership position in global governance.

Impacts on Vietnam

The special changes of the world in the first half of 2020 come at a pivotal time for Vietnam when it is preparing for the 13th Party Congress. The current situation in the world and in the region has directly affected the external security environment as well as Vietnam's interests in different fields.

In term of opportunities, due to the severe effects of the COVID-19, every country is facing an urgent need to quickly control the epidemic and restore the economy. This creates opportunities for Vietnam to promote cooperation with other nations as the country has successfully controlled the epidemic and established relationship with key partners. Besides, to a certain extent, the shift of supply chains and capital investment flows in a favorable direction for Vietnam can create the economic growth engine. The ratification of the European Union -Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the EU - Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA) marks a significant step forward on the bilateral relationship and is expected to open the door to attract goods and capital investment flows from Vietnamese enterprises as well as the 27 EU member states. The effective response to the COVID-19 coupled with socio-economic development efforts enhanced Vietnam’s position on the foreign map of many countries as they appreciate Vietnam's contribution to the regional and international community.

In terms of challenges, the world's fluctuations in the first 6 months of 2020 also pose several challenges for Vietnam. Regarding politics and security, the COVID-19 pandemic has paralyzed many delegation exchanges, causing great obstacles to maintaining dialogue and cooperation between countries. A series of high-level events were postponed, canceled or organized under virtual conferences form. At the same time, the year of 2020 marks the anniversary of the establishment of relations with different countries such as 70 years of Vietnam – China and Vietnam - Russia relationship, 25 years of normalization of diplomatic relations between the US and Vietnam. The epidemic situation requires Vietnam to actively apply technology advances and make efforts to maintain exchanges in new forms. The question is how to promote substantive cooperation with countries in the current unprecedented situation. Moreover, some people argued that Vietnam pretends to tackle the epidemic to restrict individual liberties, trade and foreign investment. This argument poses a new task not only for diplomatic relations but also for persuading and explaining to international community the benefits of Vietnam's measures during the battle against COVID-19 epidemic.

The biggest challenge is still to behave appropriately in the context of fierce competition between the US and China. Strategically, they both need a clearer support from  forces they lead, namely the US "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" Strategy (IPS), China's "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) and China's "Community with a Shared Future for Mankind". Like other small and medium-sized countries, Vietnam is forced to handle it skillfully to reduce pressure from this competition.

Economically, both the US and China  demand a stronger open market of Vietnam so that their goods and investment can access to it. When tensions escalate between the great powers, careful consideration should be given to determine the extent to which the need to gather forces will be met, the appropriate strategy between struggle and cooperation.

Appropriate behavior and timely response in the relationship with major countries are also an urgent task when considering the complex security challenges that Vietnam is facing. The fact that China takes advantage of the pandemic and behaves firmly to continue realizing its ambitions in the South China Sea puts the remaining claimants in tension and they are forced to take precautions.

China's policy not only creates a new status and advantage for itself while COC negotiations are stalled but also erodes trust among ASEAN countries, increases the risk of conflicts due to misestimation. Among ASEAN countries involved in the South China Sea dispute, Vietnam is the most affected due to its geographical and historical factors and its international responsibilities and its need to deepen international relations with all key partners. It is noticeable that the ability to harmonize relationship with the most influential countries is decisive for maintaining independence and self-reliance, territorial integrity and a peaceful and stable situation for development.

Vietnam's national interests are closely intertwined with political and security benefits, so they are also significantly influenced by both natural and social factors. In terms of natural factors, since the beginning of 2020, Vietnam has had to deal with unprecedented severe drought and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta. The issue of water security and climate change has emerged sharply, becoming a permanant and long-term challenge to the country's sustainable development goals. The COVID-19 pandemic has far-reaching implications, requiring adaptation in thinking and operating the economy both at the national and corporate levels. Vietnam’s economic growth engines such as qualified human resources at low cost, foreign direct investment (FDI), peaceful and stable environment inside and outside, globalization and international integration trend hardly play their role due to the world economic crisis. In that context, finding new growth drivers and preventing risks are not an easy task. With a large open economy and a high proportion of FDI enterprises in exports, taking advantage of the FTA network must always be accompanied by minimizing dependence and preventing supply chain disruptions or investment recessions. At the same time, whether Vietnam can seize opportunities from supply chain shifts and investment flows depends on the performance of institutional reform, legal framework, infrastructure and labor productivity. Digital transformation and application of science and technology advances are also required to put Vietnamese businesses in a more favorable position in the global supply chain. The current world situation shows the significant role of innovation to the economy and national security, especially in the information, telecommunications, healthcare and energy sectors. Social issues such as employment, healthcare, education, narrowing the development gaps are needed appropriate policies to improve the quality of economic growth. With GDP growth reaching 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, the tasks set to promote development and ensure people's lives are still really hard. Building the right strategy in participating in economic links, maintaining the trust with investors and lowering risks create fundamental determinants to implement the current international integration strategy.

Moreover, the world situation in the first half of 2020 clearly affects multilateral foreign affairs, thereby affecting Vietnam's position in different ways. Vietnam gain an advantage when fulfilling the role of President of the UN Security Council (January 2020) and organizing the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat (January 2020) before the COVID-19 outbreak in Southeast Asia. The context of epidemic helps highlight the relevance of the ASEAN year theme chosen by our country. Vietnam has properly demonstrated the spirit of “Cohesive and proactive adaptation” through initiatives on response to the COVID-19 and economic recovery. At the same time, Vietnam also successfully combined two roles at the regional and global levels when organizing the dialogue on ASEAN at the UN Security Council. Although the 36th ASEAN Summit was held virtually, it has achieved meaningful documents in strengthening intra-ASEAN solidarity and ASEAN's central role in the region.

In addition, the promotion of national position through multilateral diplomacy is also facing several difficulties. Due to a series of postponed and canceled events, promoting the priorities during its ASEAN Chairmanship has to be done under unprecedented circumstances. ASEAN countries must focus on fighting the COVID-19 epidemic, stabilizing their internal affairs, so they hardly devote attention and resources to regional processes. Important regional negotiation rounds such as the COC, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) were suspended. Moreover, as the US-China competition escalates, Southeast Asian countries, which have always been wary of great powers, are now more likely to find bilateral channels rather than multilateral ones to solve their foreign affair issues. At the global scale, the decline of multilateralism and international institutions poses many new requirements in strengthening and enhanching the role of multilateral diplomacy. First of all, it is to properly identify the priorities of multilateral diplomacy to promote the interests of the country, and at the same time affirm the motto of "being a responsible member of the international community". The decline of global governance system also shows the need for building trust, especially among ASEAN members and with the great powers and mid-range states in the region. The concretization of the set goals and measures to fulfill the core role of leader and conciliator at the regional, inter-regional and global levels will help Vietnam "invest" with a focus on multilateral diplomacy and improvement in national status.

In conclusion, great power competition and the COVID-19 pandemic are two cross-cutting factors shaping international relations in the first half of 2020. The world's fluctuations during the first six months of 2020 have a fundamental impact in the long run, changing the mind and foreign policy of many countries. These factors accelerate the formation of the world’s new face, increase considerably the unpredictability and instability of the world. In that context, the timely assessment of opportunities and challenges, appropriate positioning strategies in foreign diplomacy, strengthening national capacity and position are of great significance for Vietnam in the current decade./.

This article was published in the Communist Review No. 953 (November 2020)