Communist Review - Compared to recent chairmanships, Viet Nam as ASEAN Chair in 2020 put in a great deal of effort to overcome challenges, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The country successfully organized the ASEAN Summit and related summits via teleconference with outstanding achievements regarding cooperation in COVID-19 response and new progress in the South China Sea issue.

Achievements

The evaluation of the events organized during Viet Nam’s 2020 ASEAN chairmanship so far has been conducted with regard to a number of aspects as follows: the successful organization of important conferences and activities despite the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the socio-economic situation of ASEAN member states; ASEAN timely responses to the pandemic which reflected in both the format and outcomes of these conferences; and certain progress achieved as regards the South China Sea issue.

Firstly, at the beginning of 2020, no sooner had Viet Nam officially assumed the rotating Chair of ASEAN than COVID-19 broke out in the region. The pandemic greatly affected ASEAN’s annual agenda ⁽¹⁾, causing a number of events to be postponed or cancelled.  The ASEAN Senior Officials’ Meeting (SOM) (rescheduled from March 2020 to May 2020), The 33rd ASEAN-US Dialogue (rescheduled from June 2020 to August 2020) and the cancelled 2020 ASEAN-US Summit were some prime events worth mentioning.

In the face of such difficulty, the initiative to organize summits via teleconferencing was proposed. Conferences at three different levels of senior official’s meeting, ministerial meeting and summit were held online. In particular, the two most important events of ASEAN in 2020, i.e. the 36^th ASEAN Summit (June 2020) and the 37^th ASEAN Summit (November 2020), and other related summits were also successfully held online in June and November 2020.

Secondly, hosting virtual summits on the theme of COVID-19 response clearly demonstrated the adaptability of the Chair and other ASEAN members. The ASEAN Coordinating Council Working Group on Public Health Emergencies met twice on March 31, 2020 and June 22, 2020. Within the framework of the ministerial meetings between ASEAN and its partners, online conferences on the COVID-19 pandemic were convened, namely the ASEAN - European Union (EU) Ministerial Meeting on COVID-19 response (March 20, 2020) and Special Meeting of ASEAN - US Foreign Ministers (March 24, 2020). It was also noted that other summits including the Special ASEAN Summit and the Special ASEAN Plus Three Summit (April 14, 2020) were held in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. A series of statements about the pandemic were issued thereafter. Specifically, at the 37^th Summit, the ASEAN Strategic Framework on the Public Health Emergency, the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework and its implementation plan were adopted.

In addition to meetings at all levels on the theme of Covid-19, a myriad of other ASEAN conferences made collective commitments, including initiatives and mechanisms set up to combat the pandemic. As early as mid-February 2020, the association issued the Chairman’s Statement on ASEAN Collective Response to the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The statement affirmed the ASEAN commitment in devoting efforts to the COVID-19 collective response, strengthening cooperation between ASEAN and its partners and the World Health Organization (WHO), establishing the liaison network among agencies of the member states, and assigning the ASEAN Coordinating Council (ACC) to draw up reports and proposals for the 36^th ASEAN Summit ⁽²⁾. At the Special ASEAN Summit on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (April 2020), all member states reached an agreement to promote practical cooperation among ASEAN defense agencies in sharing information among regional countries and beyond. Cooperation contents were comprised of conducting drills to respond to public health emergencies conducted by the ASEAN Center for Military Medicine (ACMM); promoting scientific and professional cooperation among ASEAN chemical, biological and radioactive defense experts; encouraging the development of ASEAN medical supply stockpiles and utilizing available stockpiles to support ASEAN member states in public health emergencies; building up the ASEAN standard operating procedures (SOPs) for public health emergencies; establishing an expert network on public health emergencies for future needs; strengthening the capacity of ASEAN’s existing emergency response network ⁽³⁾. The 53^rd ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM 53, September 2020) emphasized the importance of ASEAN’s comprehensive approach in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, including ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework, based on which the association adopted effective measures in preventing, detecting, controlling and responding to the pandemic and addressed its serious multi-faceted challenges. Commitment to cooperation enhancement in response to the COVID-19 pandemic continued to be an important element in Chairman’s Statements at the 37^th ASEAN Summit and those between ASEAN and its partners such as the United Nations, USA, China, Japan, Korea, India and Australia.

With the introduction of responsive mechanisms for COVID-19, these commitments have been realized. At the 36^th ASEAN Summit (June 2020), ASEAN announced the establishment of the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, with the goal of creating a strong, comprehensive and inclusive recovery framework. At this meeting, participants also highlighted efforts to establish the Regional Reserve of Medical Supplies (RRMS) and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) to further strengthen their preparedness and capacity in responding to future epidemics and public health emergencies ⁽⁴⁾. At the 37^th ASEAN Summit, ASEAN announced the Terms of Reference for the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund and the Terms of Reference for the ASEAN Regional Reserve of Medical Supplies for Public Health Emergencies.

In addition to intra-regional efforts, Viet Nam as the 2020 ASEAN Chair hosted a number of online conferences with its dialogue partners, such as Australia, China, EU, Russia and the US in order to exchange views and seek cooperation mechanisms for mitigating, controlling, and responding to the COVID-19 impacts. These mechanisms include: joint cooperation on scientific research, vaccine and medicine development; the development and maintenance of flexible, open and connected supply chains; and the implementation of ASEAN-led regional mechanisms, based on which the member states could adopt supportive and people-centered healthcare policies in order to combat the pandemic and stimulate a sustainable economic recovery⁽⁵⁾. At AMM 53, ASEAN ministers also committed to strengthening cooperation and sharing experience with ASEAN’s partners in vaccine research, development, production and distribution, providing access to medicine for COVID-19 and other diseases in case of future public health emergencies.

Thirdly, certain progress was achieved with regard to the South China Sea. Indeed, Chairman’s Statements of the 36^th and 37^th ASEAN Summits highlighted such outstanding results as: 1- ASEAN collective spirit was promoted in the South China Sea issue; 2- ASEAN reached a consensus on the legal framework for the construction of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), as well as the legal framework for determining maritime entitlements, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests.

Regarding the first outcome, in the wake of separate statements of ASEAN foreign ministers about the South China Sea in Myanmar in 2014, the collective spirit of the community was somewhat affected, as shown in a number of its documents. Although these documents still expressed the general position of the community, such phrases as “several leaders” and “several ministers” in a number of Chairman’s Statements and Foreign Ministers' Communiqués on the South China Sea reflected the challenges to the bloc’s solidarity. Referring to China’s reclamation and construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, Joint Communiqué of the 48^th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting (2015) states: “several ASEAN ministers expressed deep concern”, although in fact these ministers made it clear that these activities “eroded trust, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the South China Sea”⁽⁶⁾. Also in 2015, the consensus principle’s limitation was further demonstrated when the Chairman’s Statement of the 27^th ASEAN Summit reveals “the concerns of some leaders about the growing presence of military equipment and the possibility of further militarization of bases in the South China Sea” ⁽⁷⁾. The situation lingered until the 35^th ASEAN Summit in Thailand (2019) ⁽⁸⁾. However, in the 36^th and 37^th ASEAN Summits, ASEAN member states reached a consensus on the South China Sea issue when using the term “we” instead of “some leaders” that were commonly present in a number of ASEAN Chairman’s Statements since 2015. The Chairman’s Statement affirmed: “We express concerns over the land reclamation being undertaken in the South China Sea, which has eroded trust and confidence and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region” ⁽⁹⁾.

As for the second outcome, prior to the 36^th ASEAN Summit, it was challenging to seek agreement on the COC dispute settlement mechanism within ASEAN as its member countries would express their own views for their own interests. Only few among them wanted to make the COC a mechanism under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) ⁽¹⁰⁾. Even in the 35^th ASEAN Summit in Thailand, ASEAN member states only aimed to achieve an effective and substantive COC ⁽¹⁰⁾. Not until the 36^th  and 37^th  ASEAN Summits did ASEAN member states agree that the code should be consistent with international laws, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS 1982) ⁽¹²⁾. In addition, a myriad of chairman’s statements of the summits between ASEAN and its partners including the US, China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia affirmed that the making of the COC must be in accordance with the UNCLOS 1982. An important point worth emphasizing is that in both the 36^th and 37^th ASEAN Chairman’s Statements, ASEAN countries stated by common consent that the 1982 UNCLOS was the basis for determining maritime entitlements, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests over the seas.

Overcoming challenges, making ceaseless efforts for the development of ASEAN

The remarkable results of ASEAN during Viet Nam’s 2020 ASEAN Chairmanship have set out requirements, calling for more efforts of the Association in the coming years.

First of all, in 2020, ASEAN launched numerous plans, agreements, cooperation frameworks, declarations and roadmaps covering a wide range of fields from politics, security, economy to culture and society, etc. These commitments required that ASEAN in general and Brunei in particular make more efforts to realize given goals to mark its ASEAN Chairmanship Year 2021.

Secondly, the negative impacts of COVID-19 have posed considerable challenges to the socio-economic situation of ASEAN countries. Key ASEAN economies, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines witnessed a negative growth in the first two quarters of 2020. Cambodia also encountered similar difficulties. Laos and Myanmar both recorded a stagnant growth rate. Socially, long-lasting social distancing along with economic slowdown led to a high unemployment rate. In early July 2020, the Indonesian National Development Planning Agency estimated the unemployment rate in this country in 2020 could reach 9.2% ⁽¹³⁾. In May 2020, nearly 10% of workers in Bangkok (Thailand) and neighboring provinces were made redundant ⁽¹⁴⁾. The unemployment rate of Singapore in the second quarter of 2020 was 2.9%, the highest level in a decade ⁽¹⁵⁾. In the Philippines, this figure was very high, at 17.7%, with 7.3 million unemployed workers in April 2020 ⁽¹⁶⁾; the figure for Malaysia was 3.9% (March 2020), the highest in the past 10 years ⁽¹⁷⁾; and that of Laos was 25% (May 2020). Nearly 5,700 factories in Myanmar were forced to close, making hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs (June 2020) ⁽¹⁸⁾. The tremendous impacts of COVID-19 have forced ASEAN member countries to focus on stabilizing their domestic socio-economic situation, without contributing much to ASEAN’s development during this tough time.

Thirdly, in the context of US-China increasing competition for influence, ASEAN member states are facing various challenges. The US is gathering forces through the “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy, at the same time, strengthening bilateral cooperation with a number of countries in the region to curb the influence of China. For its part, with the Belt and Road Initiative, China has increasingly exerted its influence over Southeast Asian countries through a series of massive infrastructure investment projects.

Being ASEAN Chair for a few times has enriched Viet Nam with certain experience in dealing with internal and external challenges. However, the regional situation has changed significantly, especially under the serious impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasing competition for influence among great powers. In such context, Viet Nam always puts in great efforts and makes effective and practical contributions to the development of ASEAN.

Firstly, in practice, the upcoming ASEAN Chair often consults with the most recent one. As COVID-19 is not expected to end in 2021, Brunei will likely have to hold virtual conferences in the ASEAN Chairmanship Year 2021, and will face challenges regarding human resources for the preparation and organization of these conferences this year. In such a context, besides the effective supporting role of the ASEAN Secretariat, Viet Nam should be ready to support and advise Brunei in the matters concerned.

Secondly, in the context of the increasingly complex competition among big countries in the region, it is necessary to continue affirming ASEAN's central role in the evolving regional order. This helps the Association avoid the challenge of having to “pick sides”. The affirmation of ASEAN's centrality is not reflected only in ASEAN-led mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS) or ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+), but also in those currently shaped in the broader Indo-Pacific region on the basis of Viet Nam’s initiatives during its ASEAN Chairmanship Year 2020.

Thirdly, the role of Viet Nam in unifying ASEAN and promoting ASEAN's partnership to achieve a common perception on the South China Sea issue in 2020 is evident. This is also an important achievement of ASEAN that is worth being recognized. For this reason, in 2021 and the coming years, Viet Nam needs to firmly persuade other ASEAN member states and partners to maintain their shared stance on the South China Sea in the 36^th and 37^th ASEAN Chairman’s Statements, as well as in the Statement of the summit between ASEAN and its partners in November 2020. The common consent includes: the affirmation of the need for a peaceful dispute resolution in accordance with the generally recognized principles of international law, including UNCLOS 1982; the affirmation that UNCLOS 1982 is the basis for determining maritime entitlements, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests over the seas; the legal framework set out by UNCLOS 1982 for all activities in the oceans and seas; and the emphasis on the importance of demilitarization and self-restraint in conducting all activities in the South China Sea by the claimants and all other states.

To recap, despite a challenging year, Viet Nam fulfilled its role as ASEAN Chair with creative and flexible efforts. In this term, all major summits were successfully held online for the first time in more than half a century of ASEAN’s history. ASEAN and its partners made numerous commitments on how to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. As an active, proactive and responsible member, Viet Nam will continue to work with other member states to assert ASEAN’s central role in an open, transparent, inclusive, rules-based order manner, contributing to the regional peace, security and stability, strengthening economic linkages, regional connectivity, and enhancing ASEAN’s identity, resilience and adaptability to rapid changes in regional and global situations./.

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(1) ASEAN: ASEAN National Calendar 2020, July 15, 2020

(2) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement on ASEAN Collective Response to the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019, February 15, 2020

(3) ASEAN:  Declaration of the Special ASEAN Summit on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), April 14, 2020

(4) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit: Cohesive and Responsive ASEAN, June 26, 2020

(5) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Tlđd

(6) ASEAN: Joint Communiqué 48^th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting, Kuala Lumpur, August 4, 2020

(7) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 27^th ASEAN Summit, Kuala Lumpur, November 21, 2015

(8) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 35^th ASEAN Summit: Advancing Partnership for Sustainability, Bangkok/Nonthaburi, November 3, 2019

(9) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Tlđd;  ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Hanoi, 12 November 2020

(10) Carl Thayer: A Closer Look at the ASEAN - China Single Draft South China Sea Code of Conduct, The Diplomat, August 3, 2018

(11)  ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 35^th ASEAN Summit: Advancing Partnership for Sustainability, Bangkok/Nonthaburi, November 3, 2019

(12) ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Tlđd; ASEAN: Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Tlđd;  Chairman’s Statement of the 36^th ASEAN Summit, Tlđd

(13) Luthfi T. Dzulfikar: How the COVID-19 pandemic will leave more young people unemployed in Indonesia, The Jakarta Post, July 5,  2020

(14) The Nation Thailand: Thai unemployment at nearly 10 per cent’ due to Covid-19, June 5, 2020

(15) Rachel Phua: Singapore jobless rate hits 2.9%, highest in more than a decade; retrenchments double, Channelnewsasia, July 29, 2020

(16) Philippine Statistics Authority: Employment Situation in April 2020, June 5, 2020

(17) D Kanyakumari: Malaysia’s unemployment rate at highest in a decade: Statistics department, Channelnewsasia, May 8, 2020

(18) Reliefweb: IOM Myanmar COVID-19 Response Situation Report 9, July 6, 2020

This article was published in the Communist Review, No. 957 (January 2021)